Worthington schools should be able to stay off the ballot until sometime in 2009, says district Treasurer Jeff McCuen.

McCuen presented the district's new five-year financial forecast at the Monday, Oct. 22, school board meeting, held at the Worthington Education Center.

"Comparing ending balances from the January 2006 forecast to the ending balance in June 2010, we saved a little over $55 million, which should keep us off the ballot until sometime in calendar year 2009," McCuen said.

The new forecast shows positive fund balances until 2011, when the budget deficit is projected to be about $3 million.

Board member Marc Schare said that compared to the adapted May 21 forecast, the district has "pulled off an amazing feat for public education in Ohio" in balancing the budget and keeping "expenses flat" from 2004-05 to 2006-07.

"Based on the positive fund balance of $12.5 million in fiscal year 2010, not including a contingency of $3.1 million, there is no justification for a tax issue of any kind in calendar year 2008," he said. "The earliest we should consider a tax issue would be 2009, which means that Worthington would have gone five years between tax increases for operating levies."

Voters last approved an operating levy of 6.35 mills in May 2004.

In May 2006, voters turned down an operating levy request for 6.25 mills.

After instituting a "Reduce, Rethink and Recalculate" plan, Superintendent Melissa Conrath found $1.1 million in immediate cuts and planned about $2 million in additional cuts each year.

With former Treasurer Jonathan Boyd, Conrath proposed the "no new millage" 1.91-mill bond issue that voters approved in November 2006, which cost-shifted $10 million from the bond issue to replace expenses for capital improvements that had been drawn from the general budget.

The bond issue also was expected to generate $37.5 million for the district in needed capital improvements.

McCuen said a number of factors will aid the district in staying on top of expenses through 2010, including state transitional guarantee funds of $9.6 million, $12 million in state funds to replace tangible taxes, investment returns of about $7.1 million from 2006-10, $10 million from the bond issue, $9.6 million in staff reductions already realized and an additional $7.6 million in planned reductions.

Total revenues for 2006 were about $111.6 million, according to the new forecast, with about $103.9 million in total expenses.

Actual 2007 revenues were about $95.8 million, with expenditures coming in at about $100.5 million and a positive fund balance of about $22.8 million.

Fiscal year 2008 is projected to end up with about $116.5 million in revenue and about $106.7 million in expenses.

Expenses begin to exceed revenue, but with positive fund balances, in 2009.

Schare said the "escalating pace" of expenses projected by the new forecast was alarming.

"So what is driving the increase in expenses? The primary cost driver seems to be the health-care plan the board approved a month or so ago," he said.

McCuen's notes presented with the forecast show health insurance costs increasing in January 2008 by 28 percent. Estimated increases are 20 percent per year for fiscal year 2009 and beyond, McCuen said.

"Even if everything in this forecast is reasonable and conservative, can Worthington afford our product?" Schare asked. "Many of our seniors received word that their Social Security increase will be 2.3 percent. The median real income, adjusted for inflation, declined in the Worthington school district by 13 percent between 2000 and 2004.

"If our expenses are outstripping the ability of our residents to pay, the levy issue is not reasonable nor will it be whether our salaries are competitive with other districts -- the issue will be one of affordability and sustainability," he said.